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Industrial output growth in China 1978-2008

Period

% real increase in added value of industrial output year on year

1978

16.4

1979

8.7

1980

12.7

1981

1.7

1982

5.8

1983

9.7

1984

14.9

1985

18.2

1986

9.6

1987

13.2

1988

15.3

1989

5.1

1990

3.4

1991

14.4

1992

21.2

1993

20.1

1994

18.9

1995

14.0

1996

12.5

1997

11.3

1998

8.9

1999

8.5

2000

9.8

2001

8.7

2002

10.0

2003

12.6
2004 16.7

2005

Jan

20.9
Feb 7.6
Mar 15.1
Apr 16.0
May 16.6
Jun 16.8
Jul 16.1
Aug 16.0
Sep 16.5
Oct 16.1
Nov 16.6
Dec
2006
Jan
Feb 20.1
Mar 17.8
Apr 16.6
May 17.9
Jun 19.5
Jul 16.7
Aug 15.7
Sep 16.1
Oct 14.7
Nov 14.9
Dec
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec 17.4
2008
Jan
Feb 155.4
Mar 17.8
15.7

Industrial output growth has fluctuated more sharply than overall official GDP growth during the past quarter of a century of economic reform.

Rapid industrialisation has taken place over that period, accompanied by the movement of population from rural to urban areas and an increased weight of industrial production in national output at the expense of agricultural production, which (as in other countries) has grown much more slowly, at around 4% a year.

The economic slowdown of 1989-1990 was marked by a deceleration in industrial output growth to 3.4% in 1990. This was followed by a rapid recovery in 1991-1992, assisted by Deng Xiaoping's southern tour of early 1992, which signalled an acceptance by the authorities of double-digit growth rates for the economy as a whole. From mid-1993 the government sought to cool inflationary pressures by controlling the expansion more carefully than in 1989-1990. In 1998-1999, slack demand for exports resulting from the Asian economic crisis that began in 1997 contributed to even slower industrial growth (some economists have suggested that the slowdown may not have been fully reflected in the official figure of 8.9% growth in 1998).

As the economy recovered after 1999, industrial output accelerated to 12.6% real annual growth in 2003. In the first half of 2004, overheating became apparent in several sectors, including building materials and steel, as the annual growth rate exceeded 19% in March and April (the high figure of 23.3% a year in February resulted from the--quite normal--shift of date of the Chinese New Year from February to January in 2004). The recent interest rate rise appears to have caused a further slowdown, but value added in industry nevertheless increased by 16.7% per year for 2004 as a whole.

Industrial growth continued to spurt ahead in 2005 and 2006.

 

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook 2003; National Bureau of Statistics plan report and web site.