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2006 government work report - includes performance of major economic sectors First quarter 2005 economic report Official report on economic growth in 2004 - includes major economic indicators, including GDP |
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GDP growth 1952-2007
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Sharp increase in GDP during the reform period GDP has risen from Rmb362.4 billion in 1978, at the start of the reform period, to Rmb13.7 trillion in 2004 (both figures at current prices). Individuals have also become richer, with annual GDP per head rising during that time from Rmb379 to Rmb10,502.
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| How
GDP rose and fell 1953 Hyperinflation conquered; civil war and land reform ended: GDP up 15.6% in real terms. 1958-59 So-called "Great Leap Forward" devastated agriculture: result was falling GDP in 1960-62. (Figures for 1958-59 highly suspect, as the statistical network was largely destroyed in the "Leap", when absurdly high increases in output were reported by frightened local officials.) 1963-66 Partial restoration of market economy in the countryside promoted faster growth of agriculture. 1967-68 Production undermined by the so-called "Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution", that was initiated by Mao in mid-1966 and effectively ended by People's Liberation Army intervention in 1968. 1969-70 High growth rates followed the restoration of order after the "cultural revolution". 1976 Widespread earthquakes, including the worst ever at Tangshan, hit industrial centres, while agricultural output was hit by drought; policy paralysis resulted from the anti-Deng campaign, followed by Mao's death and the arrest of the Gang of Four. GDP fell. 1978-1982 Smashing the communes and restoring family farming jacked up agricultural (especially grain) output. 1983-85 Double-digit real GDP growth accompanied the first wave of foreign investment into China, and non-state enterprises started to develop. 1989-91 Growth slowed after the government braked the overheating economy following an aborted effort at wholesale price reform in 1988 which resulted in panic buying and runaway inflation. Price stability was achieved by cancelling large fixed investment projects, slowing domestic demand. Foreign investment fell off after the Beijing Massacre of June 1989. 1992 Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour at the beginning of the year massively boosted foreign direct investment inflows into coastal areas and started a wave of government investment in Shanghai. Record trade and GDP growth and inflation followed. 1993 Zhu Rongji appointed to rein in the overheating economy, this time more selectively than in 1989-91. Growth rates subsided gradually in subsequent years, producing a so-called "soft landing". During the 1990s, living standards continued to rise, as evidenced by the proliferation of consumer durables, especially among the urban population. Continuing FDI inflows helped boost foreign exchange reserves to record heights in the late 1990s. Especially after the publication of the 1998 GDP figures, economists, both in China and abroad, have raised serious doubts about the quality of China's national accounts, which appeared in the late 1990s to overstate economic growth and are now suspected of understating growth. This may be because the statistical system tends to overestimate output at the trough of the cycle and underestimate output at the peak. However, the country's first production census discovered at the end of 2005 that GDP has recently been grossly underestimated as a result of a failure to take into account the rapid growth of the services sector. As a result, growth rates for 2003-2005 are now recorded at around 10% per year in real terms. Despite efforts to cool the overheating economy, the officially recorded GDP growth rate was 11.4% in 2007. |
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| Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook
2004; National Bureau of Statistics plan report. Last page update: 4 May 2008. |